Description: Further DetailsTitle: Radical UncertaintyCondition: NewSubtitle: Decision-Making Beyond the NumbersISBN-10: 1324004770EAN: 9781324004776ISBN: 9781324004776Publisher: WW Norton & CoFormat: HardbackRelease Date: 10/30/2020Description: Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.Language: EnglishCountry/Region of Manufacture: USItem Height: 239mmItem Length: 160mmItem Width: 38mmItem Weight: 852gAuthor: Mervyn King, John KayGenre: Business & FinanceTopic: Language & ReferenceRelease Year: 2020 Missing Information?Please contact us if any details are missing and where possible we will add the information to our listing.
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Publication Name: Radical Uncertainty
Title: Radical Uncertainty
Subtitle: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
ISBN-10: 1324004770
EAN: 9781324004776
ISBN: 9781324004776
Release Date: 10/30/2020
Release Year: 2020
Country/Region of Manufacture: US
Book Title: Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Number of Pages: 544 Pages
Language: English
Publisher: Norton & Company, Incorporated, w. w.
Publication Year: 2020
Item Height: 1.5 in
Topic: Consumer Behavior, Decision-Making & Problem Solving, Management, Insurance / Risk Assessment & Management
Illustrator: Yes
Genre: Education, Business & Economics
Item Weight: 30.1 Oz
Item Length: 9.4 in
Author: Mervyn King, John Kay
Item Width: 6.3 in
Format: Hardcover
