Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granul

Description: Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity by Joe Lorkowski, Vladik Kreinovich This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events.Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with "granules" that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities.This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making —so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty. FORMAT Paperback LANGUAGE English CONDITION Brand New Back Cover This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with "granules" that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making --so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty. Table of Contents Human Decisions Are Often Suboptimal: Phenomenon of Bounded Rationality.- Towards Explaining Other Aspects of Human Decision Making.- Towards Explaining Heuristic Techniques (Such as Fuzzy) in Expert Decision Making.- Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Restrictions on Computation Resources: From Heuristic to Optimal Techniques.- Conclusions and Future Work. Long Description This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with "granules" that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making --so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty. Feature Explains seemingly irrational human decision-making by taking into account our limited ability to process information Shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making Demonstrates that granularity helps to explain seemingly irrational human decision-making Details ISBN3319872605 Author Vladik Kreinovich Language English ISBN-10 3319872605 ISBN-13 9783319872605 Format Paperback Series Studies in Systems, Decision and Control Subtitle Towards Optimal Granularity DEWEY 006.3 Imprint Springer International Publishing AG Place of Publication Cham Country of Publication Switzerland Pages 164 Year 2018 Publication Date 2018-08-18 Short Title Bounded Rationality in Decision Making under Uncertainty Series Number 99 UK Release Date 2018-08-18 Edited by Kwang-Leong Choy Birth 1945 Affiliation Univ Of Illinois At Urbana-champaign, Usa Position Professor Qualifications University of Virginia Publisher Springer International Publishing AG Edition Description Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 2018 Alternative 9783319622132 Audience Professional & Vocational Illustrations IX, 164 p. 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